Hockey
Sticks in the scientific literature
The "hockey stick" is the famous reconstruction of
past temperatures originally found by Mann, Bradley and Hughes in their 1998
paper, and extended in their 1999 paper.
Since those two publications, many other researchers have found similar
results, either for the globe as a whole (like PAGES 2k),
or a hemisphere, or regionally. And others have extended them further back in
the past, also finding a hockey stick graph.
This isn't especially surprising, as I showed here
and here
-- a hockey stick is expected from the basic laws of physics. In fact, it'd be
far more surprising if global reconstructions didn't find a hockey
stick.
Here
are comparisons of reconstructions of the last 1,000 years, from
Skeptical Science:
https://static.skepticalscience.com/images/NH_Temp_Reconstruction.gif
Below is a list of some of the papers that have found hockey
sticks. Many of these, and their descriptions, were compiled
by Jim Milks of Seeing the
Environment Forest. See his
post for links to each study if they’d not included here. I’ve added
several new papers at the bottom.
If you know of others, or have suggestions or criticisms, please email me here.
-----
“Global-scale
temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries,”
Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, Nature 392, 779-787 (23
April 1998).
“Northern
hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties,
and limitations,” Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K.
Hughes, Geophysical Research Letters,
Volume 26, Issue 6, 15 March 1999, pp 759–762
“Causes of Climate
Change Over the Past 1000 Years,” Thomas J. Crowley, Science 14 Jul
2000, v289 issue 5477 pp. 270-277: Used both his own and Mann et al. (1999)’s
hockey sticks to examine the cause of temperature changes over the past 1,000
years. Found that natural forcings could not explain twentieth century warming
without the effect of greenhouse gases.
“Temperature trends over the
past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures,” Huang, et
al. Nature 403, 756-758(2000): Reconstructed global average temperatures
since AD 1500 using temperature data from 616 boreholes from around the globe.
Bertrand et al. 2002: Reconstructed solar output, volcanic activity, land use
changes, and greenhouse gas concentrations since AD 1000, then computed the
expected temperature changes due to those forcings. Compared the computed
temperature changes with two independent temperature reconstructions.
Esper et al. 2002: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD
800 and AD 2000 using tree ring chronologies.
Cronin et al. 2003: Reconstructed temperatures between 200 BC and AD 2000
around Chesapeake Bay, USA, using sediment core records.
Pollack and Smerdon 2004: Reconstructed global
average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 695 boreholes
from around the globe.
Esper et al. 2005: Compared and averaged five independent reconstructions of
Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1000 to AD 2000.
Moberg et al. 2005: Combined tree ring proxies with glacial ice cores, stalagmite,
and lake sediment proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures from
AD 1 to AD 2000.
Oerlemans 2005: Reconstructed global temperatures from AD 1500 to AD 2000 using
169 glacial ice proxies from around the globe.
Rutherford, et al. 2005: Compared two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions
and tested the results of each reconstruction for sensitivity to type of
statistics used, proxy characteristics, seasonal variation, and geographic
location. Concluded that the reconstructions were robust to various sources of
error.
D’Arrigo et al. 2006: Reconstructed Northern
Hemisphere temperatures between AD 700 and AD 2000 from multiple tree ring
proxies using a new statistical technique called Regional Curve
Standardization. Concluded that their new technique was superior to the older
technique used by previous reconstructions.
Osborn and Briffa 2006: Used 14 regional temperature
reconstructions between AD 800 and AD 2000 to compare spatial extent of changes
in Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Found that twentieth century warming was
more widespread than any other temperature change of the past 1,200 years.
Hegerl et al. 2007: Combined borehole temperatures
and tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the
past 1,450 years. Introduced a new calibration technique between proxy
temperatures and instrumental temperatures.
Juckes et al. 2007: Combined multiple older
reconstructions into a meta-analysis. Also used existing proxies to calculate a
new Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction.
Wahl and Ammann 2007: Used the tree ring proxies, glacial proxies, and borehole
proxies used by Mann et al. (1998, 1999) to recalculate Northern Hemisphere
temperatures since AD 800. Refuted the McIntyre and McKitrick
criticisms and showed that those criticisms were based on flawed statistical
techniques.
Wilson, et al. 2007: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD
1750 to AD 2000 using tree ring proxies that did not show a divergence problem
after AD 1960.
Mann et al. 2008: Reconstructed global temperatures between AD 200 and AD 2000
using 1,209 independent proxies ranging from tree rings to boreholes to
sediment cores to stalagmite cores to Greenland and Antarctic ice cores.
Kaufman, et al. 2009: Used tree rings, lake sediment cores, and glacial ice
cores to reconstruct Arctic temperatures between 1 BC and 2000 AD.
von Storch et al. 2009: Tested three different temperature reconstruction
techniques to show that the Composite plus Scaling method was better than the
other two methods.
A Bayesian
algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part I:
Development and applications to paleoclimate reconstruction problems, MP Tingley
and P Huybers, Journal
of Climate 23 (2010), 2759-2781.
A Bayesian
algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part II:
Comparison with the regularized expectation-maximization algorithm, MP
Tingley, and P Huybers, Journal of Climate 23 (2010), 2782-2800.
Frank et al. 2010: A brief history of proxy temperature reconstructions, as
well as analysis of the main questions remaining in temperature reconstructions.
Kellerhals et al. 2010: Used ammonium concentration
in a glacial ice core to reconstruct tropical South American temperatures over
the past 1,600 years.
A
New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-Tropical Northern
Hemisphere During the Last Two Millennia, F.C. Ljungqvist,
Geografiska Annaler,
Volume 92, Issue 3, September 2010, pages 339–351: Reconstructed extra-tropical
Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000 using historical records,
sediment cores, tree rings, and stalagmites.
Thibodeau et al. 2010: Reconstructed temperatures at the bottom of the Gulf of
St. Lawrence since AD 1000 via sediment cores.
Büntgen et al. 2011: Used tree ring proxies to
reconstruct Central European temperatures between 500 BC and AD 2000.
Kemp et al. 2011: Reconstructed sea levels off North Carolina, USA from 100 BC
to AD 2000 using sediment cores. They also showed that sea levels changed with
global temperature for at least the past millennium.
Kinnard et al. 2011: Used multiple proxies to reconstruct late summer Arctic
sea ice between AD 561 and AD 1995, using instrumental data to extend their
record to AD 2000.
Martin-Chivelet et al. 2011: Reconstructed
temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula from 2000 BC to AD 2000 using
stalagmites.
Spielhagen et al. 2011: Reconstructed marine temperatures in the Fram Strait from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores.
Esper et al. 2012: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Scandinavian
temperatures 100 BC to AD 2000. May have solved the post-AD 1960 tree ring
divergence problem.
Ljungqvist et al. 2012: Used a network of 120 tree
ring proxies, ice core proxies, pollen records, sediment cores, and historical
documents to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD
2000, with emphasis on proxies recording the Medieval Warm Period.
Melvin et al. 2012: Reanalyzed tree ring data for the Torneträsk
region of northern Sweden.
Abram et al. 2013: Reconstructed snow melt records and temperatures in the
Antarctic Peninsula since AD 1000 using ice core records.
“A
Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years,”
Marcott et al, Science
v339 n6124 pp 1198-1201, March 8, 2013: Reconstructed global temperatures over
the past 11,000 years using sediment cores. Data ended at AD 1940.
"Continental-scale
temperature variability during the past two millennia," PAGES 2k
Consortium, Nature Geosciences, April
21, 2013: Used multiple proxies (tree rings, sediment cores, ice cores,
stalagmites, pollen, etc) to reconstruct regional and
global temperatures since AD 1.
"Pairwise
comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over
the last 2,000 years," Sami Hanhijarvi, et
al, Clim Dyn (2013).
“Used
proxy and instrumental records to reconstruct global temperatures from AD 1753
to AD 2011,” Rohde et al, Geoinfor Geostat: An Overview (2013), 1:1.
"Millennial
minimum temperature variations in the Qilian Mountains, China: evidence from
tree rings," Y. Zhang eet al, Climate of the Past (2014), 10,
1763–1778, 2014.
"A
multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer
temperatures over the last millennium," Shi et al, Climate Change, August 2015, Volume 131,
Issue 4, pp 663-676.
"Heterogeneous
warming of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures over the last 1200
years," Martin P. Tingley and Peter Huybers,
Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, Volume 120, Issue 9, Article first published online: 14 May
2015.
"Last
millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The
long term context," Rob Wilson et al, Quaternary Science Reviews
(2016) 134 1-18.
“Australasian
Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium,” Gergis et al, Journal
of Climate (2016) v29 n15 5365-5392. (Discussion)
“A global multiproxy
database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era,” PAGES 2k
Consortium, Scientific Data volume 4,
Article number: 170088 (11 July 2017).
“Consistent multidecadal
variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the
Common Era,” PAGES 2k Consortium, Nature Geoscience, July 24, 2019.
·
Here’s
their graph.
“Holocene global mean
surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach,” Darrell
Kaufman et al, Scientific Data 7, Article Number: 201 (2020).
“Globally resolved
surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum,” Matthew B. Osman et
al, Nature v 599 pp 239–244 (2021).
Last updated 2/25/22